Stunning Upsets in Canadian Federal Election

Most, if not all political pundits were caught off guard by the sweeping changes in the 2011 Federal Election.

A Tory win was predicted, but there was uncertainty over whether it would be a minority government or a majority government. As the election campaign went on, most were seeing a majority slip away. However, the big news, esp. during the last week of the election campaign, was the sudden surge in NDP popularity, with some going so far as to predict a new Prime Minister!

Meanwhile, many expected the Liberals to lose seats but no one predicted such a stunning upset with the Liberals seeing their seats cut in half from 77 to 34. Even more incredible, was the destruction of the Bloc from 49 seats down to 4!

The NDP sweep was not only in Quebec, but also in parts of Toronto. The dramatic fortunes of the NDP have seen a historic result: Official Opposition.

However, NDP success was muted with the surprise majority victory of the Conservatives. With 167 seats, 12 more than required for a majority, the Conservatives have achieved a Conservative majority for the first time since 1988.

So, we have a Conservative Majority, an NDP Official Opposition, a severely weakened Liberal party, a decimated Bloc Quebecois and a first seat for the Green Party.

Who knew Canadian politics could be so interesting?

A Minority Government?

With less than 2 weeks to go, it is still uncertain whether or not the Conservatives will secure a majority win or a minority win.

If Harper wins a minority, the question then becomes will the opposition parties form a coalition in order to defeat the government or will Harper make concessions in order to remain in power?

The latest polls reveal that the Conservatives are firmly in the lead but a majority, while close, still eludes them.

One question on everyone's mind is: what will happen if the Conservatives win a majority? As today's column in the Vancouver Sun mentions, it will likely be more of the same.

Harper, contrary to Warren Kinsella's assertions, is not about to re-open the abortion debate, change gay marriage or introduce the death penalty. He will focus on the economy.

After all, he has a Master's Degree in Economics.