Tough Year Ahead

To no one's surprise, 2012 is predicted to be a difficult year. Unemployment is up, deficits are huge and political dithering over austerity measures in Europe is likely to continue.

Few are holding their breath that the U.S. can get unemployment down or reduce the deficit by any meaningful amount. Factor in the continuing crisis in Greece and Italy and it is going to be a rough year for everyone.

Even Canada, which has weathered the storm relatively well, is not likely to escape unscathed. Prime Minister Harper has warned that 2012 will require 'tough economic choices'.

The economic recovery is looking less like a recovery and more like a Global Recession.

Does S&P Lack Credibility?

With the news of the recent loss of the U.S.' coveted AAA credit rating, stock markets went into a tailspin. All three major U.S. stock markets fell between 5% and 7% since the announcement by S&P.

The downgrade was a result of political disputes on how to handle the mounting debt. S&P delivered a sharp rebuke to the political class of the U.S.

Investors obviously panicked and decided to sell and ask questions later. However, some analysts are questioning the credibility of S&P in particular and rating agencies in general. S&P, along with Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings were the same agencies that gave AAA ratings to subprime mortgage instruments that were, for the most part, junk.

Add in that S&P made a slight mathematical error when they first submitted their report to the Treasury Department: S&P, due to a computational error, overstated the debt problem by $2 trillion!

Nevertheless, even though this was pointed out, S&P still downgraded the U.S. rating.

The U.S. is definitely in trouble, but S&P lacks the credibility necessary to be the ones to point this out.

Stronger U.S Economy in 2011

Although the U.S. unemployment rate has held at 9.4%, the number of new claims fell to 404,000, below expectations.

Economists indicate claims falling below 400,000 will signal that the U.S. unemployment rate will begin to decline.

Housing sales have also improved. Scotiabank Group has predicted a global recovery with global output expected to grow 4.2% and 4.4%, respectively, in 2011 and 2012. While the majority of this growth will occur in emerging economies, advanced economies, including the United States, are expected to see growth.

Still, for now U.S. unemployment remains stubbornly high with few new jobs being created. There are genuine concerns that the U.S. might be in a jobless recovery, despite Obama's assertions to the contrary.

Time will tell

U.S. Economy Slow to Recover

Canada's unemployment rate inched up in July, although this appears to be due to layoffs in the Education sector due to the summer months.

However, while the Canadian outlook is not too bad overall, the U.S. outlook is far more uncertain. The economy appears to be recovering, but at a slower pace than anticipated.

Unemployment is still high in the U.S. and it is not likely to drop significantly, at least for the short term

Economic recovery will be slow according to Buffett

Warren Buffett blamed healthcare for dragging down the economy. The U.S. healhcare is bloated and at 17% of GDP, is a much higher cost than healthcare costs of other countries.

Warren supported Obama's planned reforms but said he would prefer 'Plan C', one that focused on cutting costs.

Warren likened healthcare as a 'tapeworm' and said it was 'eating at our economic body'.

While the bloated healthcare in the U.S. is a serious problem, it is almost certainly not the only issue facing the U.S. economy. A massive debt, unemployment, consumer confidence, a housing crisis, not to mention a costly war, could all be added to the list.

Long-Term Unemployment Increases

Although unemployment figures in the U.S. have remained steady at 10.0 %, long-term unemployment has continued to increase. Long-term unemployment is defined as more than 27 weeks unemployment. 39.8% of unemployed Americans, or 6.1 million Americans have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks as of December 2009. This compares to 22.9% of unemployed Americans, or 3.5 million Americans suffering from long-term unemployment in 2008.

In November 2009, Federal Reserve officials predicted modest economic growth and predicted the jobless rate would drop to between 8.2% and 8.6% in 2011. Still, the Fed cautioned it would take 5 or 6 years for the jobless rate to drop down to pre-2007 levels. Others suggested even longer.

Not all economists agree with these predictions. Some are suggesting unemployment will climb to 10.5% before declining late in 2010.

Either way, 2010 will not be 'business as usual' no matter how much profit Wall Street rakes in. Prudent management of companies, regardless of scale or industry, will do well to keep an eye on expenses as we move into a cautiously optimistic, but uncertain, economic future.

Consumer Incentives to Buy Autos

Along with Ford, Toyota has asked the Canadian government to provide incentives to consumers in order to increase new car sales. These proposals include a $2,700 US incentive to purchase a new vehicle in 2009 as well as credit and tax breaks.

Incentives have been proposed in the U.S. including incentives to purchase Hybrid vehicles and other 'buy American' proposals, but while the various auto manufacturers have been offering various incentives and rebates, it does not appear, as far as I can tell, that the U.S. government is offering anything close to what the auto manufacturers are asking of the Canadian government.

The argument put forward by Toyota Canada is that rather than focus on a bailout to the Big Three, the Canadian government would be better off stimulating the auto industry via incentives to consumers. This would positively impact the whole supply chain by stimulating demand. Of course, this way the bailout would help Toyota and not just the Big Three. Interestingly enough, Toyota has asked the Japanese government for a $2 billion US loan in order to help cover expected losses of $3.9 billion US in 2009. Additionally, Toyota has indicated that GM and Chrysler should be given a loan from the US as this will help all automanufacturers by ensuring suppliers stay in business.

It's hard to reconcile the two but perhaps the argument can be made that if GM Canada goes under it won't negatively impact Toyota or other Asian automanufacturers since suppliers in the U.S. are far more important. Additionally, by stimulating consumer demand, Toyota stands to gain in Canada whereas the potential loss of critical suppliers in the U.S. would have a devastating impact on Toyota and other Asian auto manufacturers.

Perhaps the U.S. should follow Canada's lead and offer incentives to U.S. consumers to trade in old vehicles for new ones. This would be in addition to any incentives offered by the automanufacturers themselves. Not only will this help stimulate sales, it will be better for the environment by getting old polluters off the road. Such proposals are likely being considered but I'm pretty sure they have not been implemented.