Last month the White House indicated that, due to policy mistakes, the U.S. is in an L-Shaped economic recovery instead of a V-shaped economic recovery.
I had indicated in April 2009 in a comment on a Wall Street Journal article that we might be facing an L-shaped recovery rather than a U or V Shaped recovery.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/04/23/green-shoots-dont-come-cheap/tab/comments/
In response to an initial comment regarding the economy and how we were facing a U-Shaped economic recovery as opposed to a V-Shaped economic recovery I stated:
The real concern should not be whether it is a U shape or a V shape, but whether or not it is a L shape. Note the IIF mentions the concerns about the high debts and deficits of many governments (not to mention many corporations). Concerns about recovery in the medium term might mean slow growth for years as governments struggle with a mountain of debt.
2 and a half years later it looks like my statement is bang on. I'll admit I did use the word 'might' but overall, this is correct today as acknowledged by the White House last month.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Does S&P Lack Credibility?
With the news of the recent loss of the U.S.' coveted AAA credit rating, stock markets went into a tailspin. All three major U.S. stock markets fell between 5% and 7% since the announcement by S&P.
The downgrade was a result of political disputes on how to handle the mounting debt. S&P delivered a sharp rebuke to the political class of the U.S.
Investors obviously panicked and decided to sell and ask questions later. However, some analysts are questioning the credibility of S&P in particular and rating agencies in general. S&P, along with Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings were the same agencies that gave AAA ratings to subprime mortgage instruments that were, for the most part, junk.
Add in that S&P made a slight mathematical error when they first submitted their report to the Treasury Department: S&P, due to a computational error, overstated the debt problem by $2 trillion!
Nevertheless, even though this was pointed out, S&P still downgraded the U.S. rating.
The U.S. is definitely in trouble, but S&P lacks the credibility necessary to be the ones to point this out.
The downgrade was a result of political disputes on how to handle the mounting debt. S&P delivered a sharp rebuke to the political class of the U.S.
Investors obviously panicked and decided to sell and ask questions later. However, some analysts are questioning the credibility of S&P in particular and rating agencies in general. S&P, along with Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings were the same agencies that gave AAA ratings to subprime mortgage instruments that were, for the most part, junk.
Add in that S&P made a slight mathematical error when they first submitted their report to the Treasury Department: S&P, due to a computational error, overstated the debt problem by $2 trillion!
Nevertheless, even though this was pointed out, S&P still downgraded the U.S. rating.
The U.S. is definitely in trouble, but S&P lacks the credibility necessary to be the ones to point this out.
Friday, August 5, 2011
A Double Dip Recession?
Are we heading for another recession? Based upon the most recent headlines, some experts say yes. Still, it's far from a certainty and may simply be a minor correction before the economy begins a slow recovery.
It is possible that the worst is over in terms of housing prices, job losses and the hit to savings and retirement funds. On the other hand, few economists predicted the housing crisis or the worldwide fallout or the subprime mortgage crisis, so one can be forgiven for being skeptical about claims about 'market corrections'.
Given the US debt crisis, the EU debt crisis, the weakening US dollar and the fall in the stock markets, many are speculating another Great Depression. Along with calls to move back to the Gold Standard, is it any wonder than many fear another global meltdown?
Whether this will happen is anyone's guess but with the US debt at over $12 trillion and with record consumer debt, it may appear inevitable that the modest gains in the economy will be rolled back.
Nevertheless, it is likely that we will narrowly avoid dipping into another recession, but it is clear that we are not out of the woods yet.
It is possible that the worst is over in terms of housing prices, job losses and the hit to savings and retirement funds. On the other hand, few economists predicted the housing crisis or the worldwide fallout or the subprime mortgage crisis, so one can be forgiven for being skeptical about claims about 'market corrections'.
Given the US debt crisis, the EU debt crisis, the weakening US dollar and the fall in the stock markets, many are speculating another Great Depression. Along with calls to move back to the Gold Standard, is it any wonder than many fear another global meltdown?
Whether this will happen is anyone's guess but with the US debt at over $12 trillion and with record consumer debt, it may appear inevitable that the modest gains in the economy will be rolled back.
Nevertheless, it is likely that we will narrowly avoid dipping into another recession, but it is clear that we are not out of the woods yet.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Stunning Upsets in Canadian Federal Election
Most, if not all political pundits were caught off guard by the sweeping changes in the 2011 Federal Election.
A Tory win was predicted, but there was uncertainty over whether it would be a minority government or a majority government. As the election campaign went on, most were seeing a majority slip away. However, the big news, esp. during the last week of the election campaign, was the sudden surge in NDP popularity, with some going so far as to predict a new Prime Minister!
Meanwhile, many expected the Liberals to lose seats but no one predicted such a stunning upset with the Liberals seeing their seats cut in half from 77 to 34. Even more incredible, was the destruction of the Bloc from 49 seats down to 4!
The NDP sweep was not only in Quebec, but also in parts of Toronto. The dramatic fortunes of the NDP have seen a historic result: Official Opposition.
However, NDP success was muted with the surprise majority victory of the Conservatives. With 167 seats, 12 more than required for a majority, the Conservatives have achieved a Conservative majority for the first time since 1988.
So, we have a Conservative Majority, an NDP Official Opposition, a severely weakened Liberal party, a decimated Bloc Quebecois and a first seat for the Green Party.
Who knew Canadian politics could be so interesting?
A Tory win was predicted, but there was uncertainty over whether it would be a minority government or a majority government. As the election campaign went on, most were seeing a majority slip away. However, the big news, esp. during the last week of the election campaign, was the sudden surge in NDP popularity, with some going so far as to predict a new Prime Minister!
Meanwhile, many expected the Liberals to lose seats but no one predicted such a stunning upset with the Liberals seeing their seats cut in half from 77 to 34. Even more incredible, was the destruction of the Bloc from 49 seats down to 4!
The NDP sweep was not only in Quebec, but also in parts of Toronto. The dramatic fortunes of the NDP have seen a historic result: Official Opposition.
However, NDP success was muted with the surprise majority victory of the Conservatives. With 167 seats, 12 more than required for a majority, the Conservatives have achieved a Conservative majority for the first time since 1988.
So, we have a Conservative Majority, an NDP Official Opposition, a severely weakened Liberal party, a decimated Bloc Quebecois and a first seat for the Green Party.
Who knew Canadian politics could be so interesting?
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
A Minority Government?
With less than 2 weeks to go, it is still uncertain whether or not the Conservatives will secure a majority win or a minority win.
If Harper wins a minority, the question then becomes will the opposition parties form a coalition in order to defeat the government or will Harper make concessions in order to remain in power?
The latest polls reveal that the Conservatives are firmly in the lead but a majority, while close, still eludes them.
One question on everyone's mind is: what will happen if the Conservatives win a majority? As today's column in the Vancouver Sun mentions, it will likely be more of the same.
Harper, contrary to Warren Kinsella's assertions, is not about to re-open the abortion debate, change gay marriage or introduce the death penalty. He will focus on the economy.
After all, he has a Master's Degree in Economics.
If Harper wins a minority, the question then becomes will the opposition parties form a coalition in order to defeat the government or will Harper make concessions in order to remain in power?
The latest polls reveal that the Conservatives are firmly in the lead but a majority, while close, still eludes them.
One question on everyone's mind is: what will happen if the Conservatives win a majority? As today's column in the Vancouver Sun mentions, it will likely be more of the same.
Harper, contrary to Warren Kinsella's assertions, is not about to re-open the abortion debate, change gay marriage or introduce the death penalty. He will focus on the economy.
After all, he has a Master's Degree in Economics.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Libyan Unrest Hits U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar may no longer be the 'safe haven' of old. The continuing crisis in Libya, as well as fears of unrest spreading throughout the Middle East has caused investors to seek safety outside the U.S. Specifically, the Euro, once a risky currency (due to the ongoing debt crisis in parts of Europe), is now considered (relatively) safe.
Oil prices have risen on speculation Libya has lost as much as 2/3rd of its oil production. Oil is hovering close to the $100/bbl mark.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar is currently trading over par with the U.S. dollar. Given that the Oil prices are rising and investors are fleeing the U.S. dollar, the Canadian dollar will likely remain high for quite some time.
This does not bode well for Canadian exporters who are being hit both ways: reduced sales in the U.S. and higher production prices at home due to higher Oil prices.
If anything, this should be a wake up call for Canadian manufacturers. Improved efficiencies will be necessary if they wish to remain competitive.
Oil prices have risen on speculation Libya has lost as much as 2/3rd of its oil production. Oil is hovering close to the $100/bbl mark.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar is currently trading over par with the U.S. dollar. Given that the Oil prices are rising and investors are fleeing the U.S. dollar, the Canadian dollar will likely remain high for quite some time.
This does not bode well for Canadian exporters who are being hit both ways: reduced sales in the U.S. and higher production prices at home due to higher Oil prices.
If anything, this should be a wake up call for Canadian manufacturers. Improved efficiencies will be necessary if they wish to remain competitive.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Stronger U.S Economy in 2011
Although the U.S. unemployment rate has held at 9.4%, the number of new claims fell to 404,000, below expectations.
Economists indicate claims falling below 400,000 will signal that the U.S. unemployment rate will begin to decline.
Housing sales have also improved. Scotiabank Group has predicted a global recovery with global output expected to grow 4.2% and 4.4%, respectively, in 2011 and 2012. While the majority of this growth will occur in emerging economies, advanced economies, including the United States, are expected to see growth.
Still, for now U.S. unemployment remains stubbornly high with few new jobs being created. There are genuine concerns that the U.S. might be in a jobless recovery, despite Obama's assertions to the contrary.
Time will tell
Economists indicate claims falling below 400,000 will signal that the U.S. unemployment rate will begin to decline.
Housing sales have also improved. Scotiabank Group has predicted a global recovery with global output expected to grow 4.2% and 4.4%, respectively, in 2011 and 2012. While the majority of this growth will occur in emerging economies, advanced economies, including the United States, are expected to see growth.
Still, for now U.S. unemployment remains stubbornly high with few new jobs being created. There are genuine concerns that the U.S. might be in a jobless recovery, despite Obama's assertions to the contrary.
Time will tell
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